Prinsburg, Minnesota - (Area Forecast Discussion)

Area Forecast Discussion

Station: KMPX (TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN, MN)
Product: AFD (Area Forecast Discussion)
FXUS63 KMPX 060005
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
605 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering light snow ends from west to east today, with travel 
impacts through the evening commute.

- Cold temperatures tonight with lows in the single digits across 
the area.

- Another round of snow expected to arrive midday tomorrow in
  western MN, spread southeast through early Sunday. Several
  inches of accumulation are possible in southern MN with lower
  amounts to the north.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Radar echoes continue to churn over the eastern half of Minnesota 
and through western WI this afternoon, with the strongest echoes and 
highest snowfall rates skirting just to the south of the MPX CWA in 
WI in portions of Wabasha, Trempealeau, and Buffalo counties as of 
130pm. High resolution guidance has not performed particularly well 
with the evolution of the light snowfall today, as it tends to 
struggle with high PoP/low QPF type of scenarios. The latest 
HRRR/RAP show lingering echoes in southern MN through 21-22z after 
which point all snow tapers off this evening. Additional 
accumulations in the area should remain rather low, with an 
additional tenth of an inch or two in areas that continue to see 
some light snow. Visibility has generally been improving per 
automated surface observations, generally improving from 2 miles or 
lower while snow is falling to above 7-8 miles as it ends. In this 
type of environment, visibility is a decent proxy to snowfall rates, 
thus once the visibility improves we can generally say that 
lingering radar echoes are struggling to produce noticeable 
precipitation. Temperatures are expected to crash behind the 
departing snowfall as northwesterly winds stack across all layers of 
the troposphere, allowing overnight low temperatures to range in the 
single digits above zero tonight with the warmest temps in the metro 
urban heat island.

Another clipper type snow event is likely tomorrow favoring western 
to southern Minnesota and into Iowa, beginning around midday in 
western MN and spreading southeast into the evening before ending 
early Sunday morning. Guidance is still wobbling, especially the 
high resolution guidance as there was a significant discontinuity 
between the 00z runs last night and the 06/12z runs this morning, 
with the 18z returning to align with the earlier runs. The 06/12z 
HRRR especially pushed snowfall potential much farther north which 
has again retreated back to the south with the 18z guidance, as the 
18z RAP shows a solid footprint of snow along and south of the 
Minnesota River with the highest amounts in northern Iowa. From our 
snow events so far this season, the RRFS/AIFS have acted as a steady 
anchor point for the forecast as the guidance has trended towards 
their solutions the closer we have moved towards an event, and no 
surprise the return to the more southerly solution within the 18z 
guidance is also following this trend as both keep the axis of 
highest snowfall potential from roughly Sioux Falls to Des Moines. 
Dynamics wise this looks to be a quintessential clipper type event 
with a strengthening mid level shortwave on top of a deep dendritic 
growth zone due to cold low level temperatures. Forecast soundings 
show a deepening DGZ as precipitation begins, with dynamic cooling 
allowing for better saturation and efficient snowfall production 
into the evening. The vertical continuity between the 925-700mb 
isodrosotherms and shortwave moving through should produce the 
heaviest bursts of snowfall as frontogenetic forcing remains aloft 
with the lack of a defined surface system/boundary, which timing 
wise favors the late afternoon through evening time frame south of 
the Minnesota River. With the snowfall relying on the omega from the 
shortwave, snow should end rather quickly as the forcing departs to 
the southeast, with most of the area done with snow after midnight. 
Overall accumulations are still fluctuating based on the expected 
track of the shortwave, with a solid 3-6 inch range south of the 
Minnesota River decreasing to 1-2 inches for most of the Twin Cities 
metro and even lower amounts to the north where the forcing cuts 
off. The highest overall amounts of 6 inches or more look to fall in 
central to northern Iowa where the best chance to line up the 
forcing with the best environment matches up, however there is still 
enough movement run to run within the guidance that some shifting is 
still possible. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued along and 
south of the Minnesota River, with some upgrades/expansion possible 
tonight with the midnight shift having fresh data to work with after 
the 00z upper air soundings. Travel impacts are expected Saturday 
evening into early Sunday, especially along I-90 where our highest 
amounts are most likely, with impacts tapering off as crews have 
time to work on Sunday.

Temperatures remain cold on Sunday in the single digits with lows 
dropping below zero in spots both Sunday and Monday morning before 
we warm back up into the 20s on Monday ahead of our next potential 
system. Guidance late Monday into Tuesday favors a weak surface low 
developing alongside a diffuse upper level shortwave tracking from 
Grand Forks down through Duluth, which would place an axis of 
precipitation along our border with the DLH NWS office. We may be 
dealing with some p-type issues as we warm up enough to get above at 
the surface, with 850mb temperatures trending towards the freezing 
mark as well. There are still a few ways this could play out 
depending on where the forcing ends up and how far north the warmer 
air pushes, but don't be surprised if we start to mention a wintry 
mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain/drizzle on Tuesday next week. 
Stay tuned for more detail as there is still a high degree of 
uncertainty depending on how things evolve. Yet another shot of 
colder air is appearing within the longer range ensemble guidance 
afterwards, returning us back to our clipper train type environment 
we have been in since Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 554 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Mainly MVFR ceilings tonight, but we could see a few hours of 
scattering to VFR overnight into tomorrow morning. Ceilings are
likely to improve to low-end VFR by late morning/early 
afternoon, but are expected to drop back to MVFR by late
afternoon when a swath of light snow moves across southern
Minnesota. Snow impacts are most likely at RWF & MKT, but will
likely extend north into MSP by early tomorrow evening. EAU is
also expected to see snow tomorrow but the onset will be later
in the evening. Visibility will drop to IFR with the snow, with
accumulations of 3-6" expected across southern Minnesota by 
early Sunday morning, & lighter amounts of 1-2" farther north
into the Twin Cities & I-94 corridor of Wisconsin.

Northwest winds drop below 5 kts this evening & gradually 
become northeasterly overnight into tomorrow morning. Speeds 
increase to around 10 kts by tomorrow afternoon.

KMSP...Ceilings around 1500 feet this evening will improve late
tonight & through the overnight hours, possibly scattering out 
to VFR for a few hours. MVFR ceilings eventually become VFR 
late tomorrow morning, falling back to MVFR as light snow is 
expected to begin between 3-5 PM. There is a low chance that 
the snowfall remains completely south of MSP, but we expected 
snowfall rates of around 0.25"/hr & IFR visibility for a few 
hours tomorrow evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...Likely VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. 
MON...MVFR cigs. Chc -SN. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR early, MVFR/IFR late with -SN. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to midnight CST 
     Saturday night for Blue Earth-Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-
     Martin-Nicollet-Redwood-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow 
     Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...ETA